Black Friday or Last-Minute Dash: When Should You Do Your Holiday Shopping?

The Black Friday Phenomenon (a Data dive)

Black Friday has long been synonymous with deep discounts and a frenzied start to the holiday shopping season. The 2024 event was no exception, shattering previous records and highlighting significant shifts in consumer behavior. According to data from Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers spent a staggering $10.8 billion online, a 10.2% increase from the $9.8 billion spent in 2023 [1]. Globally, the spending spree reached $74.4 billion in just 24 hours, a 5% rise from the previous year, as reported by Salesforce [1].

This surge in online spending underscores a continuing trend, with 87.3 million people choosing to shop from the comfort of their homes, compared to 81.7 million who ventured into brick-and-mortar stores [1]. However, the in-store traffic still represented a notable increase from the previous year, indicating a partial return to pre-pandemic shopping habits.

Black Friday Online Sales Growth (U.S.)

Source: Adobe Analytics [1]

While the allure of Black Friday deals is undeniable, the data reveals a more nuanced picture. A 2023 study by PriceSpy found that 22% of products were actually cheaper at the start of November than on Black Friday itself [2]. This suggests that early-bird shoppers may find better deals by not waiting for the main event. Furthermore, an analysis by Decodo revealed that only 2% of discounted products are at their cheapest on Black Friday [3], challenging the perception that it is universally the best day for deals.

Nevertheless, certain product categories experience dramatic sales spikes. In 2024, Toys & Games saw a 412% increase in sales compared to a normal day, followed by Apparel & Accessories at 374% [1]. This indicates that for specific items, particularly those popular for gifting, Black Friday remains a key purchasing period.

The Last-Minute Christmas Rush: A Test of Nerves and Budgets

For those who miss out on Black Friday, the period leading up to Christmas offers another window of opportunity, albeit a more chaotic one. This timeframe is characterized by a surge in last-minute shopping, culminating in "Super Saturday"—the last Saturday before Christmas. In 2024, an estimated 157.2 million consumers were expected to shop on Super Saturday, a significant increase from 141.9 million in 2023 [4].

This late-season rush is driven by a variety of factors. According to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF), as of early December, consumers had only purchased half of the items on their lists on average, with just 10% having completed their shopping entirely [4]. The primary reasons for the delay include uncertainty about what to buy (37%), other financial priorities (27%), and waiting for gift requests from family and friends (24%) [4].

Super Saturday 2024: A Last-Chance Saloon

Source: National Retail Federation [4]

While last-minute shopping can be stressful, it can also present opportunities for savvy consumers. Retailers are often keen to clear out inventory before the end of the year, leading to significant markdowns. Post-Christmas sales, in particular, can offer deep discounts, with 71% of consumers planning to shop in the week following December 25th to take advantage of these deals [4]. However, waiting this long carries the risk of popular items being out of stock.

Head-to-Head: Black Friday vs. Christmas Shopping

Deciding between these two major shopping periods requires a careful consideration of priorities, from price and product availability to the overall shopping experience. The data provides a clear framework for this decision.

For the Early Planner: The Case for Black Friday

Shopping on Black Friday is ideal for the organized consumer who has a clear list of desired items, especially in high-demand categories like electronics and toys. The primary advantages are:

• Peak Deal Volume: While not always the absolute lowest price, Black Friday offers the highest concentration of deals across the widest range of products. For popular gift items, the discounts are often substantial and unlikely to be surpassed later in the season.
• Guaranteed Availability: Shopping early ensures that you can secure popular items before they sell out. The closer it gets to Christmas, the higher the risk of stock shortages, particularly for the year's must-have gadgets and toys.
• Price Matching Potential: Many retailers offer price-matching policies during this period. If a price drops further after your purchase, you may be able to claim the difference, mitigating the risk of missing out on a better deal.

For the Opportunistic Procrastinator: The Case for Christmas Shopping

Waiting until the last minute can be a high-risk, high-reward strategy. The primary advantages are:

• Inventory Clearance: As Christmas approaches, retailers become increasingly motivated to clear out seasonal inventory. This can lead to significant markdowns, especially on clothing, holiday decorations, and less popular items.
• Post-Christmas Bargains: The week after Christmas is a prime time for bargain hunting. With the gift-giving rush over, retailers slash prices to make way for new stock. This is an excellent time to use gift cards and take advantage of deep discounts, with 48% of post-Christmas shoppers motivated by sales and promotions [4].
• Less Competition for Non-Peak Items: While popular electronics might be gone, you may find better deals on other items as retailers try to capture the attention of last-minute shoppers.

Expert Insights: Navigating the New Holiday Shopping Landscape

The shifting dynamics of the holiday shopping season have not gone unnoticed by industry experts. Both McKinsey and PwC have released in-depth analyses that provide a clearer picture of the forces at play.

According to a 2025 McKinsey report, consumer sentiment is down, with a net sentiment 35% lower than its 2024 peak [5]. This "timid" consumer is primarily driven by concerns about inflation and overall affordability. As a result, shoppers are planning to spend roughly the same dollar amount as in previous years but are shifting their spending towards needed goods rather than discretionary items. This is reflected in the rise of gift cards as a top planned purchase and the increased spending on groceries [5].

"Yes, I’m still intending to spend, but I am really going to be on the hunt for the right products and at a great value. We’ve seen several years of high inflation and pricing levels that consumers still don’t feel are normal, so the hunt for deals will be one big theme of 2025." - Emily Reasor, McKinsey Senior Partner [5]

PwC's 2025 Holiday Outlook echoes this sentiment, forecasting a 5% drop in average holiday spending—the first notable decline since 2020. The report highlights a significant generational divide, with Gen Z planning to slash their holiday budgets by 23%, while millennials and baby boomers intend to maintain or even increase their spending. This divergence is attributed to life stage pressures and evolving priorities, with Gen Z being more focused on sustainability and self-gifting, while older generations prioritize family gifts [6].

Both reports emphasize the consumer's hunt for value. McKinsey notes that two-thirds of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping before Black Friday in search of deals [5], while PwC highlights that 78% of consumers are seeking less expensive alternatives and 65% are anticipating deeper, post-holiday discounts [6].

The Verdict: A Hybrid Strategy for the Modern Shopper

So, when is the best time to shop? The data and expert analysis suggest that a one-size-fits-all approach is no longer effective. The optimal strategy for the 2025 holiday season is a hybrid one that combines the strengths of both Black Friday and last-minute Christmas shopping.

1.Early-Season Reconnaissance (Pre-Black Friday): Start your research early. As the data shows, some of the best deals can be found in the weeks leading up to Black Friday. Use this time to track prices, identify your must-have items, and set a budget.

2.Strategic Black Friday Strike (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday): For high-demand electronics, popular toys, and specific big-ticket items, the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday remains your best bet. This is when you are most likely to find the best combination of discounts and availability.

3.Mid-December Lull (Post-Cyber Monday to Pre-Super Saturday): This period is often a dead zone for deals. Unless you see a specific, time-sensitive promotion, it is generally best to hold off on any non-essential purchases during this time.

4.The Final Countdown (Super Saturday to Post-Christmas): For everything else on your list—clothing, less-popular items, and anything you were willing to risk not getting—the final week before and the week after Christmas are your prime hunting grounds. This is when retailers are most desperate to clear inventory, leading to the steepest discounts.

By adopting this phased approach, consumers can navigate the complexities of the holiday shopping season with confidence, securing the best possible prices without sacrificing availability or succumbing to impulse buys. In a landscape defined by economic uncertainty and a relentless hunt for value, a well-informed strategy is the ultimate key to a successful and stress-free holiday shopping experience.

References

[1] Black Friday Statistics (2024-2025)

[2] When is it best to buy – on Black Friday or pre-Christmas...

[3] Are You Really Saving by Buying on Black Friday?

[4] 157 Million Consumers to Shop on Super Saturday

[5] Holiday shopping 2025: US consumers hunt for early deals